Texas A&M

Nothing official yet, but A&M joining the SEC looks like the worst kept secret since Aggie alum Rick Perry's presidential candidacy.

My Top 5 Picks for the BCS Championship Game

Oklahoma- Yes, I know, really going out on a limb here. However, when you win 12 games, return 8 guys on offense and defense with starting experience (one of those being a QB with 4700+ yard and 38 TD's as a soph) and only play one tough road game outside of your state, then you're pretty much a no-brainer.

Why they'll win it: Tremendous offense, talent all around and a steady coaching staff. The early season road game against Florida State will be a nice challenge, but these two teams aren't all that different from last year when OU won 47-17... and Doak Campbell doesn't give you a 30 point advantage.

Why they'll lose it: Defense. This just baffles me at OU. When Stoops won it all his second season they had an absolutely smothering D. They have had stud players run through the program for years, but have not had consistently good defenses. They showed in the BCS Championship game against Florida a couple of years ago that they could put together a big defensive game when needed, but week-in, week-out in the Big 12 they give up a lot of points and yards. In 2009, OU had one of their best defensive teams in years but fell off last year, allowing 7 more points and nearly 100 more yards per game.

Boise State- I really wonder if it will just become a ho-hum event of Boise State winning 11-12 games a year and ending up on the outside looking in due to big conference politics or picking the wrong night to have a bad second half (Hello, Nevada).

Why they'll win it: They return 14 guys with starting experience, including outstanding QB Kellen Moore and 1200 yard rusher Doug Martin. Coach Chris Petersen has a 61-5 career record and the Broncos have great schemes on both sides of the ball- in addition to solid special teams. They also return 8 of their top 10 OL.

Why they'll lose it: Their schedule sets up a little funny this year. Opening with a "neutral site" game against Georgia in Atlanta will be interesting, but Boise's October sets up for potential upsets. Their October starts out with a revenge game against Nevada, then road trips to Fresno State and Colorado State- not powerhouses, but teams definitely capable of catching BSU relaxing. Then on November 12, they have a regular season match-up with TCU followed by a road trip to San Diego State. For some reason it just sets up perfectly for me to see a win in the big game followed by a hangover.

Alabama- Ordinarily I would never pick a team to go all the way when it didn't have a QB named a week before opening game. However, when that QB's job is to hand off to Trent Richardson, dump the ball off to Marquis Maze & Darius Hanks and sit back and watch a Nick Saban/Kirby Smart-coached defense with 10 returning starters.

Why they'll win it: The defense returned only two starters last year and still allowed only 13.5 points/game. They have another year under their belts and tons of talent. Alabama's defense is the perfect union of great recruiting and great coaching. They also return two kicking specialists that started as true FR last year. The offense has skill talent galore and should have a very good OL. All the pieces are there for a special team if a QB comes through.

Why they'll lose it: While Bama's schedule sets up better than last year's there are still challenges and still some inexplicable lapses from last year that raise questions. They were fortunate to beat Arkansas and drilled by South Carolina. Later in the season they gave up 225 yards on the ground in a loss to LSU then the amazing loss to Auburn after blowing a 24-0 lead. While talented, maybe this core group of players just doesn't have "it" like the 08 and 09 teams. Two pieces of the schedule to watch: Arkansas at home on 9/24, then at Florida (Arkansas will be good and don't forget when Bama-Florida played in 05-06, it started with a Bama rout at home followed by a loss at UF the next year) and the November swing of LSU at home (always dangerous), @ Miss State (becoming a tough road trip for the SEC), a "please Lord, don't get hurt" game against GA Southern and a trip to the plains to close out the season with Auburn.

Virginia Tech- I'm telling you, one of these years Virginia Tech is going to sneak in and ride to the BCS Championship game when no one suspects it. They don't do well with heavy expectations, but a teams that plays defense and special teams the way they do can win any game when their heads are on straight.

Why they'll win it: One word: schedule. Check this out: App State (a year late guys, James Madison woke them up last year), @ East Carolina, Arkansas State, @ Marshall, home against Clemson (great talent and consistent mediocrity), home against Miami (this was a win even before UM hit the fan), @ what looks to be a down Wake Forest, homecoming against a decent Boston College and at Duke in the first 9 games. There is no reason whatsoever for them to not be 9-0. They close out with a trip to Georgia Tech, then North Carolina at home and close with a trip to Virginia. This is by far the toughest stretch of their season, but all winnable games.

Why they'll lose it: they have to discover an identity on offense very quickly. With Tyrod Taylor, Darren Evans and Ryan Williams gone Tech lost 2300 yards rushing and 2700 yards passing. David Wilson should hold down the RB position and QB Logan Thomas has a ton of talent and they return their top 5 WR's from last year in addition to 9 of their top 10 OL, but other than Michael Vick, Tech QB's seem to take awhile to hit their stride.

Nebraska- The newest member of the Big 10 (+2) should make an immediate splash. Bo Pelini had the best defensive squad in the Big 12 and brings a lot of athleticism to the conference. One thing about Pelini at Nebraska was this: he won the games he was supposed to win and did it in convincing fashion (except for his inexplicable difficulties with Iowa State). This should favor him well when his team should have an athletic advantage in most conference games.

Why they'll win it: They can run the ball. Nebraska almost had three 1,000 yard rushers last year and two of them return in QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead. The Huskers defense will also breathe a sigh of relief to trade the passing games of the Big 12 for the more leisurely offenses of the Leaders & Legends. They should be 4-0 when they roll into Madison to face a Wisconsin team that may have been the least frightening 11-win team of all time last year, then have their homecoming against a deflated Ohio State squad. They get Michigan State and Iowa at home and it could all come down to consecutive road trips to Penn State and Michigan to see if they can avoid upsets and go the distance.

Why they'll lose it: Last year the Huskers had an amazing weapon in Alex Henery who made 18-19 FG's and averaged 43 yards per punt. The downside to having one guy handle all the kicking duties? Replacing both specialist positions in the same year. The Huskers will have a FR kicker whose high school prom corsage hasn't died yet and JR punter that has never punted in a game. Nebraska's style of play (great run game, average passing) will keep them in games but not necessarily blow anyone away. When they're in sloppy November weather in a 10-7 game, they'll wish Henery wasn't in Philadelphia playing for the Eagles.

Jefferson Update

So now LSU QB Jordan Jefferson has been booked and charged with a felony:

http://www.ksla.com/story/15339721/arrest-warrants-issued-for-lsu-players-over-fight

I found this bit of the story interesting:

Shady's door manager Jordan Neldare, who said he witnessed the fight, said he noticed that Jefferson removed himself from the brawl before it was over, and was standing alone near the bar's entrance, looking upset.

I'd be upset too if I'd known I just blew the opportunity of a lifetime and brought shame to my university and community. Hope he can pick up the pieces.

What was really interesting to me was that police confiscated 49 pairs of shoes from Jefferson's apartment. How many roommates does he have- 12? If Steve Spurrier dogged Florida State about their shoe shenanigans in the 90's I can't wait to hear this.

As for on the field performance, it would seem as if LSU is on a downward spiral and primed for a disappointing performance against Oregon... but something tells me this is just the sort of situation that Les Miles and his Magic Hat are made for. Jarrett Lee has been named the starting QB for the game and he has a nice arm and plenty of experience- he also has a penchant for throwing killer interceptions. I wouldn't be surprised to see some combination of Lee and University of Georgia transfer Zach Mettenberger against Oregon (who has a serious arm). Oregon will be going into their game without their best CB and LSU always has (wasted) talent at the wide receiver position.

Who Won't be Lifting the Crystal

While I'm not ready to pick my 2011 BCS Champion yet, I will go on record with which Top 4 Teams is definitely will not be: LSU or Oregon.

One thing BCS Champions need is leadership- and this summer these two teams have exhibited a shocking lack of it from team leaders. Oregon's star CB Cliff Harris was driving 118 MPH in a car the reeked of marijuana? With starting QB Darron Thomas in the car? While Thomas was not charged with anything, don't forget he was also in the car with Jeremiah Masoli when marijuana was found in Masoli's car.

Meanwhile, at LSU, starting QB Jordan Jefferson was having his apartment searched today because of his involvement with a fight at a bar. In all, it is estimated that 50 LSU players were out at Shorty's Bar early Friday morning when the team curfew was 10:30 PM.

Does this give anyone a warm, fuzzy that these guys are ready to lead their teams to a championship season? Let's look at the last few BCS Champions:

2010- Auburn rallied around starting JR QB Cam Newton who led his team despite distractions that surrounded him. The way he left Florida and his recruitment after juco may raise questions, but his effort, guts and level of play from March to January elevated his team from a fringe Top-20 squad to champions.

2009- Alabama won with JR QB John Parker Wilson, a great game manager and leader who really came on the scene in the SEC Championship Game against Florida when he showed he could excel in the spotlight.

2008- Florida won with JR QB Tim Tebow... fill in the rest.

2007- LSU won with SR QB Matt Flynn,a 5th year player and leader who lead them to major 4th quarter wins over Florida and Alabama.

2006- Florida wins with SR QB Chris Leak who overcame a quiet nature to become an exemplary leader off the field.

So... where were the stories of Matt Flynn joyriding with teammates at 118 MPH with pot smoke billowing from the windows (okay, a little carried away but fun Cheech and Chong imagery)? Did I miss the rumors of Chris Leak kicking a guy in the head outside of a bar?

Championship teams always have that something special that elevates them from the pack. If it were talent alone, USC would have won 5 BCS Championships in the 2000's. If the guy at the helm of the most critical position on the team can't make good decisions off the field, safe money is that he'll end up blowing it on the field.

Top 5 Potential Busts in the Preseason Polls

With the AP and USA Today polls out in the past week, I see some schools jumping out at me that could be in for a big disappointment this year...

Auburn (AP #23, USA Today #19)- let's start at the top with the defending BCS Champions. Last year the Tigers rode a wave of controversy to the title. While my hat is off to them for keeping it all together last year, once you peel away the 3 most recognizable aspects of AU from last year: Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and Gus Malzahn, most folks knew nothing about them. Here is what they missed: when you take away the offensive firepower and the big plays by Fairley, you're looking at a defense that allowed 24 points/game. Last year it might not have mattered that Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas & Georgia scored more than 30 points against AU, but it will this year. Want to hear something more scary? How about 3 returning starters on offense and 3 returning starters on defense. Scariest of all? How about this for consecutive weeks in October: at #12 South Carolina, at #15 Arkansas, #22 Florida and at #4 LSU.

Ohio State (AP # 18, USA Today #16)- Honestly, I'm not sure how they'll be able to play their September 17th game at Miami for fear of the circling buzzards overhead. Tressel is gone, Pryor is gone, 4 key players suspended until October, etc. OSU had two losable games last year- they were handled by Wisconsin and squeaked past Iowa. This year they replace Minnesota with Michigan State and have a road trip to Nebraska. Pryor was the main element to that offense and they are returning only 4 starters on defense. Something tells me the Big 10 (11, 12) competition is looking forward to taking their shots against the former king of the hill.

Oklahoma State (AP #9, USA Today #8)- While we're on the subject of OSU's, how about the Cowboys? They just remind me of the typical Big 12 teams from a couple of years ago- tons of offense, no defense. That might work in the regular season when you have all your key elements back, but they're replacing a terrific OC (although maybe not a perfect casino guest) in Dana Holgorsen. Their defense last year was pretty awful for an 11-2 team- 26 points and over 400 yards allowed per game. Sorry, but I'm not buying your case as a major power when Troy comes to your house and puts up 38 points. Add in the fact that they're returning only 5 defensive starters and I see those road trips to Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech pretty daunting.

Georgia (AP #19, USA Today #22)- Did I miss something? UGA had a losing record last year thanks to one of the most abysmal bowl performances by an SEC team since Washington pounded Florida 34-7 in the 1989 Freedom Bowl, they lost their best offensive player in AJ Greene, one of their top OL (Trinton Sturdivant) is down for the year with a knee injury and they're a top 20 team according to the writers? Granted, Aaron Murray is probably the best QB in the conference and Orson Charles is a tough match-up at TE- but Georgia has gotten poor line play for years, they are paper-thin at RB and they still play in the SEC. Yes, I know all about Richt recruiting the "dream team" last year, but I've heard that song before (remember last year, the hated Gators had one of the greatest freshman classes of all time and they made Lane Kiffin's lone Tennessee squad look well-oiled). UGA is banking on 3 things: Isaiah Crowell being an instant star, Ray Drew having an immediate impact at DE and Jon Jenkins being the next Tay Cody at the nose. Sorry, but a couple of true frosh that have battled injuries this fall and a 340 lb DT that needs to be carried off the field after 3 plays sounds like they're heading to an 0-2 start after the Boise State and South Carolina games... and if that happens it is all coming down like a house of cards while the focus shifts to "I heard Kirby Smart bought a house in Athens" rumors.

Florida State (AP #6, USA Today #5)- This is another one I'm puzzling over a bit. I think FSU will be a solid team, but top 5? This is a 4-loss team from last year that squeaked past BC and Clemson at home. Yes, they beat a bad Florida team. Yes, they beat South Carolina in the Stephen Garcia after-party. Yes, they had a very good recruiting class- but when you look at last season as a whole it is not that impressive, Christian Ponder is gone and while EJ Manuel has looked good in spot duty, he has never been 'the man' and they have absolutely nothing behind him at QB- which is very concerning for a running QB. Depending on how quickly FSU recovers from the loss to Oklahoma (yes, I'm already calling that one), they could easily leave September with a 2-2 record. Given their tendency to sleepwalk through the ACC schedule and drop games to lesser-talented teams they really have to be careful with 7 conference games in 7 weeks before their trip to what should be an improved (or at least, interested) Florida team.