USF @ #16 Notre Dame (Line: ND -11): After years of struggling against teams with good athleticism, Notre Dame stepped up and played well to beat Utah and USC at the end of last season. To me, this question comes down to USF QB BJ Daniels. He looked like the next big thing when he came on the seen to win at FSU as a freshman. Last year, he only had an 11:13 TD:Int ratio and really struggled in some big games. I think this game will start slowly with Skip Holtz bringing Daniels along slowly and with Notre Dame struggling early against USF's athletic front. The home crowd and Dayne Crist will prove to be too much though and in the end, I think Notre Dame wins by 3.
#14 TCU @ Baylor (Line: TCU -4): As I mentioned previously, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III is worth the price of admission. Baylor returns 9 players on offense with starting experience and TCU returns only 5 starters on D. Baylor's issue is defense, though. They allowed 30 points per game last year and while they return as many starters on D as TCU, they could be starting as many as 5 sophomores on D. TCU is likely going to have 8 upperclassmen starters on D. Why do I like this? Because they have an established program on defense. The Horned Frogs have finished #1 in the nation in total defense in 5 of the last 11 years. That doesn't mean they were a small school with one big class. They have a proven system and have been able to develop players. I like TCU's offense being able to control Baylor in the red zone more than I like Baylor's defense against a TCU offensive system that has only averaged less than 400 yards/game once in the last 7 years. TCU wins by 13.
Miami @ Maryland (Line: Maryland -3): I didn't really know what to expect from Miami coming into this season- a lot of underachieving south FL talent under a new coach from Temple? Now, they've been decimated by suspensions for at least the first game and are under a cloud of controversy as a program. However, this is still Miami and Maryland. Miami will still be the more athletic team, but with ACC Rookie of the Year Danny O'Brien coming off a very strong freshman year, I think Maryland takes control and pulls away in the second half- the Terps by 14.
#5 Boise State - #19 Georgia (Boise State -3.5): The mighty SEC against that team everyone wishes would go away and stop the media from chirping about BCS-Busters. The last time Boise State played the Bulldogs they had won 39 of their last 42 games, then they arrived in Athens and were down 38-0 before they made a dent on the scoreboard, losing 48-13. But don't forget this was a Georgia team that was on a 4-year run of averaging 11 wins per season. Since that time, no one has done less with more. According to Rivals, Georgia has averaged having the #7 ranked recruiting class over the past 6 seasons. In that same time, they have finished the season ranked 7th or better in the Top 25 once (2007) including finishing unranked the past 2 seasons. Granted, recruiting rankings aren't a science and highly rated classes can be busts, but over time they are a very good indicative of talent- and no one has done less with more in recent years. So, call me a fool, but I will pick the overachievers to beat the underachievers despite what happened the last time BSU played against the SEC. Broncos by 7.
#3 Oregon - #4 LSU (Line: Oregon -4): Let's face it, LSU's offense is a mess right now. Russell Shepherd is suspended, Jordan Jefferson is suspended and former OC Steve Kragthorpe was diagnosed with Parkinson's and will now serve as QB Coach while OL Coach Greg Studrawa was just promoted to OC. But the Tigers aren't totally lost on offense. Jarrett Lee has a nice arm at QB and played pretty well in spot duty last year. Backup QB Zach Mettenberger (transfer from Georgia) has a cannon for an arm as well. Soph RB Spencer Ware came on the scene with a 100 yard rushing game in the Cotton Bowl last year and the OL returns 9 of its top 10. They will be facing an Oregon defense that returns only 5 starters from last year. Oregon's offense has the top QB-RB duo in the nation with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas and averaged 531 yards/game last year. But they lose 3 starters off a great OL last year and in big games I lean toward the team with the advantage of the big guys. LSU has the advantage on both lines of scrimmage and will be playing before a friendly crowd. Besides, when the deck is stacked against him, I like the Mad Hatter and his crazy ways- LSU wins comfortably by 10.
I am watching the TCU game as we speak. This new QB they have looks like a man. He is more like a SS in the way he is built and seems to play with that same mentality. Will be interesting to watch him grow up and see what he becomes.
ReplyDeleteThe thing with these early season match-ups and the hype they get....is it just me or do they seem to never actually live up to the hype they get as "early season tests". One team always seems to win comfortably and then the conversation immediately becomes: "Well, these early season games are hard to gauge just how good a team is or isn't. It's one thing to practice against yourself but real game speed is a different thing. They will both have to keep working hard, so let's not put too much stock in one game for either side." OK..uuumm..then why did we get all hyped up and have the promos shoved down our throats for 3 weeks?