Call Me Crazy, But...

I expect Ole Miss to give Georgia a tough time on Saturday. Yes, Ole Miss lost to Vanderbilt 30-7 last weekend and has looked pretty awful this season, but look at last year- Ole Miss started the year with a home loss to Jacksonville State (ouch), beat Tulane and lost to a bad team Vanderbilt by two TD's to start 1-2. The next two games, Ole Miss had solid outings to beat Fresno State and Kentucky. Then they went on a murderer's row schedule and went 1-6 with 5 losses to Top 25 teams and a bad loss in their worst game at Tennessee. They held their own in a 23-10 loss at Alabama. They were in the game in the 4th quarter in a loss at Arkansas. They led at LSU with 4:36 to go until LSU scored in the final minute. They were driving for the tying score in the 4th quarter against Mississippi State until an illegal block call derailed them.

Georgia is looking for its first win against a BCS school and after being dominated by Boise State for most of the game played much better, although still sloppy, in a loss to South Carolina. The Bulldogs are being hammered by injuries at OL and LB, though. UGA will likely have to start a true FR on the OL and is paper-thin at several positions.

On paper, Georgia should roll in this one based mainly on just how bad Ole Miss looked last week. But given it is their first road game, the fact that they're basing newfound confidence on win over Coastal Carolina and the fact that Houston Nutt has shown the ability to get his teams up for games you don't expect them to win in the past, I just get the feeling Ole Miss will come out strong to open the game on Saturday. The key to the game will be whether Georgia will fold as it did in the opener against BSU.

Big Week for ACC

I'm not going to go into some of the superlatives I've heard this week ("This is the biggest week for the ACC in ten years," etc), but this is the best opportunity the ACC has had to make a mark among the BCS conferences in awhile. Not only does the ACC have match-ups with 5 schools from BCS conferences, 4 of the 5 opponents are ranked in the Top 25 and they are all home games for the ACC.

Kansas @ Georgia Tech: Tech laid an egg at KU last year, losing to the Jayhawks a week after they were beaten by North Dakota State. While it has played weak teams to start the season, Tech's offense looks promising after going the Knute Rockne route and attempting the forward pass this season. Their defense looks shaky and I expect both teams to move the ball. I'm picking Tech by 7.

#18 West Virginia @ Maryland: West Virginia might be the least impressive team in the Top 25. They didn't look great against Marshall, they were trailing to Norfolk State at the half (before scoring 45 2nd half points) and they're averaging only 72 yards/game on the ground. Maryland looked impressive at times in its win over Miami and has its best QB since Boomer. I expect to see a ton of yards and points with Maryland finding a way to win. Maryland by 3.

#21 Auburn @ Clemson: Auburn rebounded from its pitiful opening game against Utah State and played well against a solid Mississippi State squad. This is one of those times where it just makes sense to pick Auburn: nation's longest winning streak, the team just finds ways to win every week and Clemson was just plain bad last week giving up 272 yards on the ground and barely getting past subdivision Wofford. But whenever I expect Clemson to step up and take a step forward they let me down... so now that I expect them to tank at home against Auburn I figure they'll play up to their talent-level for a week and win a fun game against Auburn. Dabo's boys by 3.

#17 Ohio State @ Miami (FL): $50 handshakes for everyone! In a game its a shame someone has to win, you have Miami which looked sloppy in its Labor Day opener against Maryland and OSU which needed a last-minute defensive stand to defeat the might Toledo Rockets. The Buckeyes ran for only 112 yards on 34 carries against Toledo. On the flip side, they can stuff the run on D, holding Toledo to just 46 yards on 30 carries. I don't see Miami running the ball effectively on the Bucks and see a QB controversy on the horizon for the Canes. OSU by 7.

Overall, I see the ACC going 3-2 or 2-3- a solid showing but as I wrote earlier I see them losing the FSU-OU match-up and resting their hopes on Virginia Tech to reach their goal of being in the national championship conversation in November.

Big Game of the Week

#1 Oklahoma @ #5 Florida State

I heard someone mention on the radio today that Oklahoma gave up 400 yards of offense to Tulsa as an alarming stat for the Sooners. When OU went up 30-0 in the first half, the D had given up 92 total yards with a trio of 3-and-outs, an interception and a fumble recovery. Tulsa gained 200 yards in 4th quarter garbage time. Also, don't forget that Tulsa QB GJ Kinne is no slouch. He threw for 3600 yards and 31 TD's last season.

Florida State really doesn't know what it has yet. They beat a weak Louisiana Monroe team then a subdivision team in Charleston Southern. The most alarming stat for them? 28 rushes for 92 yards against ULM. FSU's pass defense looks very strong and that will be a very interesting match-up to watch.

The key to the game will be who can avoid 3rd and long. FSU's defense is athletic enough to make Landry Jones look pedestrian when behind the chains. As impressive as EJ Manuel has looked against a couple of creampuffs, he is still just a guy with 12 career TD's and 12 career Int's in his 3rd year.

OU destroyed FSU in Norman last year with virtually the same offense, but now FSU has the home-field advantage and its defense is a year older and wiser. So, in the end, I base my pick on this: the team that can pick up yards on the ground to keep third downs manageable and get into its offensive flow will win. FSU had a weak run game against a losing D-1 opponent. Oklahoma ran for 246 yards again a Tulsa team that won 10 games last year. Until FSU shows me its offense can perform against an elite team, they're still not "back" yet.

Oklahoma 31-20.

Top Games of Week 2

#21 Missouri @ Arizona State- Well, since there are not many big games this week, we'll throw a Mizzou game in since they're rumored to be a potential SEC team in the future. ASU returns 15 starters from last year. In Week 1, ASU ran for over 200 yards and passed for 300 in a laugher over UC Davis last week. Missouri played a better opening opponent in Miami (OH) and struggled to a 17-6 win. SO QB James Franklin was unimpressive in his first start and Mizzou only had 129 yards passing.

#16 Mississippi State @ Auburn- We know Auburn struggled mightily with Utah State and was extremely fortunate to come out with a win. Meanwhile Miss State blew out Memphis and gained 645 yards of offense along the way. Question #1: Can Auburn move the ball the ball against a non-prevent defense? Auburn gained 1/3 of its total offensive yards on the final two drives when Utah State went away from its base D. Question #2: Can Auburn stop the run? The Tigers gave up 227 yards on the ground to Utah State, while the Bulldogs ran for 309 against Memphis. If the answer to either one of those questions is 'Yes,' then this game will be very close.

# 3 Alabama @ #23 Penn State- Last year, Bama ground out a 24-3 win at home against Penn State that didn't seem as close as the score indicated. This year, Penn State is at home and look to give Bama a better game. Bama's defense dominated Kent State as expected and the offense gained close to 500 yards, but turned the ball over 5 times. PSU ran the ball very well against Indiana State and played great defense, but was surprisingly ineffective in the air with 114 yards passing.

#12 South Carolina @ Georgia- UGA's offense never moved the ball against Boise State until they were down by a couple of scores and playing catch-up, while their defense came out inspired for 3 drives, then rolled over and played dead for much of the remainder of the game. South Carolina decided to finally show up beginning in the 3rd quarter against ECU last week after trailing by 10 at the half. While some may be concerned about SC's defense allowing 260 yards passing to ECU- it was on 56 attempts (4.6 yards/attempt), the real concern is their offensive passing which combined to go 10/25 for 131 yards.

Week 1 in Review

Well, first of all, in my picks for Week 1, I gave Notre Dame too much credit and Baylor too little credit. I really thought the Irish would come out strong, but they were down 16-0 at the half. Of course, ND coach Brian Kelly must not only explain why he lost at home to a school that started its football program a decade after Notre Dame's last national championship, but also has to apologize to Catholic groups for going nuts on the sideline and making this face:
It could be worse, Irish fans. I don't think you'd be too much happier with this sidelines look:
Also, my apologies to Baylor. I knew RGIII was great, but the athleticism of the skill position players was much better than I expected. They may give up 50 points a game, but they have a fair chance of scoring 50 as well.

Some Week 1 Highlights that Surprised:
- Auburn. Granted, I picked Auburn as a bust for this season, but I meant more along the lines of a 7-5 season with no impressive conference wins. I wasn't really expecting them to be dominated at the line of scrimmage for 60 minutes by Utah State. Notice, that wasn't Utah. I added State to the end of that. Utah State went into Jordan Hare with a true FR QB and put up 448 yards of offense. I think Auburn needs to start trying to outbid Mississippi State for some defensive prospects. True, the Tigers snuck away with a win, but I don't think many in the Tiger nation are feeling that good about starting the SEC schedule.

- Southern California. The Trojans get shut out in the 2nd half at home and barely squeak by a Minnesota squad with a freshman QB that is picked by some to finish last in the Big 10? Countdown to Lane Kiffin making jackass comments to the media in order to maintain some relevance in football begins in 3...2...1...

- Is it basketball season yet? The state of Kentucky is ready for some roundball after the performances of Louisville and UK last week. Both schools had promising seasons under first-year coaches Charlie Strong and Joker Phillips last year. But UK leading Western Kentucky 7-3 at the half? Louisville getting blanked in the second half of a 21-9 win over Murray State?

Some Week 1 Highlights that Did Not Surprise:
- Georgia got spanked by Boise State. As I said earlier. UGA had a losing record last year. They lost to UCF in a bowl game because they couldn't move the ball. Then I was supposed to believe that a good recruiting class and the losses of AJ Green, Caleb King, Washaun Ealey and Trinton Sturdivant (among others) was supposed to make them a good team? There was no reason to expect more from Georgia this year other than a kinder schedule. The only question is whether Georgia loses to South Carolina this weekend and goes into full-on tailspin, or whether Georgia loses to South Carolina and Richt manages to salvage an 8-win season with an impressive bowl game and win the Tommy Bowden "Win-Just-Enough-Games-That-They-Can't-Can-Me" Award. By the way, Boise State, I love to watch you guys but no one can force the 'Boise Could Win the SEC' Koolaid down my throat. You beat probably the 9th-best team in the conference and now get to hit the snooze button until the Nevada game on 10/1.

- Miami lost to Maryland in an godawful ugly game. No one really expected Miami to be good even before they found out that guys could be named "Nevin" and anyone that saw sneak previews of the Maryland helmets knew this was a game made for radio. ESPN really needs to retool the Monday Night game on Labor Day weekend.

- South Carolina looked ugly against ECU. Even without the Stephen Garcia drama, Spurrier teams looking rough to open the season goes all the way back to the Florida days (although the definition of rough was different back then). Spurrier loves to get that opening 'W' but then spend a week telling the team how bad they looked and how hard they need to work.

- Oregon looked fast at the skill positions but couldn't hang in the trenches with the SEC. LSU really didn't look that great, but no one wins ugly like the Hatter and they definitely controlled the lines of scrimmage. Now on the the SEC season where LSU will win a huge miracle game, lose a huge miracle game and lose a game no one expects on their way to an 11-2 season that will see Tiger faithful openly wish Miles had gone to Michigan and alternately root for and despise every QB on the roster.

Week 1 Picks

USF @ #16 Notre Dame (Line: ND -11): After years of struggling against teams with good athleticism, Notre Dame stepped up and played well to beat Utah and USC at the end of last season. To me, this question comes down to USF QB BJ Daniels. He looked like the next big thing when he came on the seen to win at FSU as a freshman. Last year, he only had an 11:13 TD:Int ratio and really struggled in some big games. I think this game will start slowly with Skip Holtz bringing Daniels along slowly and with Notre Dame struggling early against USF's athletic front. The home crowd and Dayne Crist will prove to be too much though and in the end, I think Notre Dame wins by 3.

#14 TCU @ Baylor (Line: TCU -4): As I mentioned previously, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III is worth the price of admission. Baylor returns 9 players on offense with starting experience and TCU returns only 5 starters on D. Baylor's issue is defense, though. They allowed 30 points per game last year and while they return as many starters on D as TCU, they could be starting as many as 5 sophomores on D. TCU is likely going to have 8 upperclassmen starters on D. Why do I like this? Because they have an established program on defense. The Horned Frogs have finished #1 in the nation in total defense in 5 of the last 11 years. That doesn't mean they were a small school with one big class. They have a proven system and have been able to develop players. I like TCU's offense being able to control Baylor in the red zone more than I like Baylor's defense against a TCU offensive system that has only averaged less than 400 yards/game once in the last 7 years. TCU wins by 13.

Miami @ Maryland (Line: Maryland -3): I didn't really know what to expect from Miami coming into this season- a lot of underachieving south FL talent under a new coach from Temple? Now, they've been decimated by suspensions for at least the first game and are under a cloud of controversy as a program. However, this is still Miami and Maryland. Miami will still be the more athletic team, but with ACC Rookie of the Year Danny O'Brien coming off a very strong freshman year, I think Maryland takes control and pulls away in the second half- the Terps by 14.

#5 Boise State - #19 Georgia (Boise State -3.5): The mighty SEC against that team everyone wishes would go away and stop the media from chirping about BCS-Busters. The last time Boise State played the Bulldogs they had won 39 of their last 42 games, then they arrived in Athens and were down 38-0 before they made a dent on the scoreboard, losing 48-13. But don't forget this was a Georgia team that was on a 4-year run of averaging 11 wins per season. Since that time, no one has done less with more. According to Rivals, Georgia has averaged having the #7 ranked recruiting class over the past 6 seasons. In that same time, they have finished the season ranked 7th or better in the Top 25 once (2007) including finishing unranked the past 2 seasons. Granted, recruiting rankings aren't a science and highly rated classes can be busts, but over time they are a very good indicative of talent- and no one has done less with more in recent years. So, call me a fool, but I will pick the overachievers to beat the underachievers despite what happened the last time BSU played against the SEC. Broncos by 7.

#3 Oregon - #4 LSU (Line: Oregon -4): Let's face it, LSU's offense is a mess right now. Russell Shepherd is suspended, Jordan Jefferson is suspended and former OC Steve Kragthorpe was diagnosed with Parkinson's and will now serve as QB Coach while OL Coach Greg Studrawa was just promoted to OC. But the Tigers aren't totally lost on offense. Jarrett Lee has a nice arm at QB and played pretty well in spot duty last year. Backup QB Zach Mettenberger (transfer from Georgia) has a cannon for an arm as well. Soph RB Spencer Ware came on the scene with a 100 yard rushing game in the Cotton Bowl last year and the OL returns 9 of its top 10. They will be facing an Oregon defense that returns only 5 starters from last year. Oregon's offense has the top QB-RB duo in the nation with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas and averaged 531 yards/game last year. But they lose 3 starters off a great OL last year and in big games I lean toward the team with the advantage of the big guys. LSU has the advantage on both lines of scrimmage and will be playing before a friendly crowd. Besides, when the deck is stacked against him, I like the Mad Hatter and his crazy ways- LSU wins comfortably by 10.

Top Games of Week 1

Well, the excitement of opening week is dictated by a holiday weekend and the return of football... not necessarily by a slate full of exciting game. Here is a look at the most interesting match-ups...

USF @ #16 Notre Dame- Two programs kind of in limbo. For years, everyone waited on USF take a big step forward but it never happened. They are the kings of the quick starts, though: 2007 started 6-0 (then dropped 3 straight), 2008 started 5-0 (then went 2-5 the rest of the way), 2009 started 5-0 (then went 2-5 the rest of the way), but then last year switched gears starting 3-3, then finishing 5-2 the rest of the way. Notre Dame got off to a rough start in Brian Kelly's first year at 1-3, but rebounded to go 7-2 the rest of the way. The Irish return a ton of starters on both sides of the ball as well.

#14 TCU @ Baylor- Either it is a slow weekend or Baylor is turning a corner... maybe a little of both. If nothing else, do yourself the favor of finding the game to watch Baylor's JR QB Robert Griffin III (67% completion, 3501 yards, 22 TD/8 INT, 635 rushing yards with 8 more TD's). They could be catching TCU at just the right time with the Horned Frogs returning only 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense.

Miami @ Maryland- Did anyone notice Maryland won 9 games last year? Me either. Maryland returns starting experience at 7 positions on both offense and defense, although they did lose 1,000 yard WR Torrey Smith. The Canes were probably going to have their hands full even before they found out Jacory Harris, Ray-Ray Armstrong, Olivier Vernon, etc were going to be watching the game from Nevin Shapiro's yacht in the impound lot.

Then you have the two big neutral site games:

#5 Boise State - #19 Georgia at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. A very interesting match-up to start the year. UGA is eager to shake off their godawful performance against UCF in the Liberty Bowl. Boise State is looking for its 3rd straight season-opening win over a Top 20 team in a BCS Conference. Will Boise State remain poised in a loud dome that is 90% red and black- or will they fall flat like they did in their last game against an SEC foe (these same Bulldogs back in 2005).

#3 Oregon - #4 LSU at Jerry Jonesville in Arlington. So, everyone knows by now that Oregon CB Cliff Harris is out because he likes to drive really, really fast and LSU QB Jordan Jefferson is out because he likes to pore through his Imelda Marcos Starter Kit shoe collection and strap on some new kicks to boot Marines in the head. So what? You don't need an All American CB to pick off Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee- just an opposing jersey. We all know what to expect from LSU on offense: nothing, nothing, turnover, nothing, amazing play, nothing, amazing play, turnover, and a why-don't-they-play-like-this-all-the-time great play to finish the game. The real story to this game is how Oregon's offense fares against a real SEC defense (sorry, Auburn, but on the defensive side of the ball 06 Florida, 07 LSU, 08 Florida and 09 Bama, you ain't).

Fell free to comment with your picks on the games. I will post mine tomorrow.