Auburn (AP #23, USA Today #19)- let's start at the top with the defending BCS Champions. Last year the Tigers rode a wave of controversy to the title. While my hat is off to them for keeping it all together last year, once you peel away the 3 most recognizable aspects of AU from last year: Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and Gus Malzahn, most folks knew nothing about them. Here is what they missed: when you take away the offensive firepower and the big plays by Fairley, you're looking at a defense that allowed 24 points/game. Last year it might not have mattered that Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas & Georgia scored more than 30 points against AU, but it will this year. Want to hear something more scary? How about 3 returning starters on offense and 3 returning starters on defense. Scariest of all? How about this for consecutive weeks in October: at #12 South Carolina, at #15 Arkansas, #22 Florida and at #4 LSU.
Ohio State (AP # 18, USA Today #16)- Honestly, I'm not sure how they'll be able to play their September 17th game at Miami for fear of the circling buzzards overhead. Tressel is gone, Pryor is gone, 4 key players suspended until October, etc. OSU had two losable games last year- they were handled by Wisconsin and squeaked past Iowa. This year they replace Minnesota with Michigan State and have a road trip to Nebraska. Pryor was the main element to that offense and they are returning only 4 starters on defense. Something tells me the Big 10 (11, 12) competition is looking forward to taking their shots against the former king of the hill.
Oklahoma State (AP #9, USA Today #8)- While we're on the subject of OSU's, how about the Cowboys? They just remind me of the typical Big 12 teams from a couple of years ago- tons of offense, no defense. That might work in the regular season when you have all your key elements back, but they're replacing a terrific OC (although maybe not a perfect casino guest) in Dana Holgorsen. Their defense last year was pretty awful for an 11-2 team- 26 points and over 400 yards allowed per game. Sorry, but I'm not buying your case as a major power when Troy comes to your house and puts up 38 points. Add in the fact that they're returning only 5 defensive starters and I see those road trips to Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech pretty daunting.
Georgia (AP #19, USA Today #22)- Did I miss something? UGA had a losing record last year thanks to one of the most abysmal bowl performances by an SEC team since Washington pounded Florida 34-7 in the 1989 Freedom Bowl, they lost their best offensive player in AJ Greene, one of their top OL (Trinton Sturdivant) is down for the year with a knee injury and they're a top 20 team according to the writers? Granted, Aaron Murray is probably the best QB in the conference and Orson Charles is a tough match-up at TE- but Georgia has gotten poor line play for years, they are paper-thin at RB and they still play in the SEC. Yes, I know all about Richt recruiting the "dream team" last year, but I've heard that song before (remember last year, the hated Gators had one of the greatest freshman classes of all time and they made Lane Kiffin's lone Tennessee squad look well-oiled). UGA is banking on 3 things: Isaiah Crowell being an instant star, Ray Drew having an immediate impact at DE and Jon Jenkins being the next Tay Cody at the nose. Sorry, but a couple of true frosh that have battled injuries this fall and a 340 lb DT that needs to be carried off the field after 3 plays sounds like they're heading to an 0-2 start after the Boise State and South Carolina games... and if that happens it is all coming down like a house of cards while the focus shifts to "I heard Kirby Smart bought a house in Athens" rumors.
Florida State (AP #6, USA Today #5)- This is another one I'm puzzling over a bit. I think FSU will be a solid team, but top 5? This is a 4-loss team from last year that squeaked past BC and Clemson at home. Yes, they beat a bad Florida team. Yes, they beat South Carolina in the Stephen Garcia after-party. Yes, they had a very good recruiting class- but when you look at last season as a whole it is not that impressive, Christian Ponder is gone and while EJ Manuel has looked good in spot duty, he has never been 'the man' and they have absolutely nothing behind him at QB- which is very concerning for a running QB. Depending on how quickly FSU recovers from the loss to Oklahoma (yes, I'm already calling that one), they could easily leave September with a 2-2 record. Given their tendency to sleepwalk through the ACC schedule and drop games to lesser-talented teams they really have to be careful with 7 conference games in 7 weeks before their trip to what should be an improved (or at least, interested) Florida team.
I am a little shocked that you do not have Boise or TCU on this list. Small schools tend to have success in cycles and spurts boosted mainly by the aging and improving class that stays in school which is what those two schools seemed to enjoy. So many of those players have now moved on, and I have to wonder if they had the draws and recruiting classes to fill the empty holes.
ReplyDeleteI am with you on FSU though, and I say that as an FSU fan.
I like Boise State this year- 14 starters return- including Moore, a 1200+ yard rusher and 8 of top 10 OL. Their WR group took a hit, but they've done a good job developing at the position in the past so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Unless they are blown out by UGA (which I think they'll win), a road loss to an SEC team would be a disappointment but I couldn't call it a bust considering they'll likely run the table after that.
ReplyDeleteTCU loses a lot but I think they're ranked in line with what they'll do this year because their schedule is so weak. They add Boise State to the schedule along with Louisiana Monroe and Portland State. Of the 9 repeat opponents from last year, they beat all but one by 17 or more points.